Bonds Are Not Forever
The Crisis Facing Fixed Income Investors
Gebonden Engels 2013 9781118659533Samenvatting
An up–close look at the fixed income market and what lies ahead
Interweaving compelling, and often amusing, anecdotes from author Simon Lack′s distinguished thirty–year career as a professional investor with hard economic data, this engaging book skillfully reveals why Bonds Are Not Forever. Along the way, it provides investors with a coherent framework for understanding the future of the fixed income markets and, more importantly, answering the question, "Where should I invest tomorrow?"
Bonds Are Not Forever chronicles the steady decline in interest rates from their peak in the 1980s and the concurrent drop in inflation during that period. Lack explains how those two factors spurred a dramatic growth in borrowing among both governments and individuals. Along the way, Lack describes how a financial industry meant to provide capital needed to drive productivity and economic growth became disconnected from Main Street and explores the grave economic, social, and political consequences of that disconnect.
Provides practical solutions for avoiding the risk of falling bond markets and guaranteed negative real returns on savings
Explains how the bursting of the real estate bubble in 2007 2008 led to massive borrowing by governments as they attempted to offset a sharp fall in economic activity
Details how the trends of exploding debt and a financial sector that has grown much bigger than it needs to be have dramatically changed the game for savers
Offering a uniquely intimate, yet analytically thorough look at the coming fixed income crisis, Bonds Are Not Forever is must reading for investment professionals, as well as retail investors and their advisors.
Specificaties
Lezersrecensies
Inhoudsopgave
<p>Acknowledgments xiii</p>
<p>CHAPTER 1 From High School to Wall Street The Bull Market Begins 1</p>
<p>Inflation Memories</p>
<p>As Bad as It Gets 4</p>
<p>Trading in Gilts 5</p>
<p>The Old Class Structure 8</p>
<p>A Nineteenth–Century Market 11</p>
<p>Finance Starts to Grow 12</p>
<p>Is Finance Good? 16</p>
<p>Investing after the Bubble 20</p>
<p>CHAPTER 2 A Brief History of Debt 23</p>
<p>Interest Rates in Ancient Times 23</p>
<p>Medieval Credit 26</p>
<p>The Beginnings of Modern–Day Finance 28</p>
<p>Borrowing Reaches the Mass Market 31</p>
<p>Student Debt 39</p>
<p>Big Borrowers in History 43</p>
<p>What We Owe Now 45</p>
<p>CHAPTER 3 Derivatives Growth 51</p>
<p>Welcome to New York 52</p>
<p>Early Derivatives Growth 56</p>
<p>Swaps Take Off 61</p>
<p>Size Isn t Everything 65</p>
<p>Derivatives Reach Omaha 67</p>
<p>Norwegian Wood 69</p>
<p>CHAPTER 4 Bond Market Inefficiencies for Retail 73</p>
<p>A Simple Market Model</p>
<p>Stocks Are Fairer than Bonds 76</p>
<p>Why Change Is Slow 79</p>
<p>Structured Notes 81</p>
<p>The Internet Threatens the Swaps Oligopoly 84</p>
<p>Municipal Bonds 87</p>
<p>CHAPTER 5 Trading Derivatives 93</p>
<p>Before Banks Were Exciting Computers and Swaps 96</p>
<p>Should Banks Innovate? 97</p>
<p>Growth in Innovation 99</p>
<p>Volcker s Problem 102</p>
<p>Bring Me Clients with a Problem 103</p>
<p>Derivatives Missteps 105</p>
<p>Trading by the Book 107</p>
<p>An Options Book Blows Up 110</p>
<p>CHAPTER 6 Politics 115</p>
<p>Government–Controlled Investing Why Should We Worry? 116</p>
<p>Who Says There Is a Problem? 120</p>
<p>Look to the Future 128</p>
<p>Looking Ahead 129</p>
<p>Monetization A Thought Experiment 133</p>
<p>Imperial Overstretch 136</p>
<p>More Debt Means More Banking 141</p>
<p>CHAPTER 7 Managing Risk 1990 1998 143</p>
<p>Risk–Oriented Market Making</p>
<p>Traders and Risk 145</p>
<p>Why Traders Are Bad at Budgeting 147</p>
<p>The Growth of Global Trading 149</p>
<p>Managing Obscure Basic Risks 152</p>
<p>What s the Social Purpose? 155</p>
<p>Wall Street Fuels the Debt Growth 156</p>
<p>CHAPTER 8 Inflation 165</p>
<p>Germany s Defining Economic Experience 167</p>
<p>Inflation Today 170</p>
<p>The Fed s Huge Mistake 174</p>
<p>You Can t Spend Quality Improvements 177</p>
<p>What Critics Say 181</p>
<p>Measuring What They Can, Not What Counts 183</p>
<p>CHAPTER 9 Bonds Are Not Forever 189</p>
<p>Putting It All Together</p>
<p>Wall Street Built It 192</p>
<p>Make Your Own Bond 195</p>
<p>High Dividend, Low Beta 198</p>
<p>Hedged Dividend Capture 201</p>
<p>Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) 202</p>
<p>Deep Value Equities 205</p>
<p>Debt Is Bad 205</p>
<p>Bonds Are Not Forever 207</p>
<p>References 209</p>
<p>Glossary 215</p>
<p>About the Author 219</p>
<p>Index 221</p>
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