Decision Analysis for Management Judgment 5e

<p>Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips vii</p>
<p>Preface ix</p>
<p>Chapter 1 Introduction 1</p>
<p>Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving multiple objectives 15</p>
<p>Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART 33</p>
<p>Chapter 4 Decisions involving multiple objectives: alternatives to SMART 65</p>
<p>Chapter 5 Introduction to probability 95</p>
<p>Chapter 6 Decision making under uncertainty 117</p>
<p>Chapter 7 Decision trees and influence diagrams 161</p>
<p>Chapter 8 Applying simulation to decision problems 187</p>
<p>Chapter 9 Revising judgments in the light of new information 221</p>
<p>Chapter 10 Heuristics and biases in probability assessment 245</p>
<p>Chapter 11 Methods for eliciting probabilities 275</p>
<p>Chapter 12 Risk and uncertainty management 297</p>
<p>Chapter 13 Decisions involving groups of individuals 309</p>
<p>Chapter 14 Resource allocation and negotiation problems 337</p>
<p>Chapter 15 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 361</p>
<p>Chapter 16 Scenario planning: an alternative way of dealing with uncertainty 387</p>
<p>Chapter 17 Combining scenario planning with decision analysis 423</p>
<p>Chapter 18 Alternative decision–support systems and conclusions 437</p>
<p>Suggested answers to selected questions 469</p>
<p>Index 475</p>